Combining structural equation modeling analysis with machine learning for early malignancy detection in Bethesda Category III thyroid nodules

Abstract

Atypia of Undetermined Significance (AUS), classified as Category III in the Bethesda Thyroid Cytopathology Reporting System, presents significant diagnostic challenges for clinicians. This study aims to develop a clinical decision support system that integrates structural equation modeling (SEM) and machine learning to predict malignancy in AUS thyroid nodules. The model integrates preoperative clinical data, ultrasonography (USG) findings, and cytopathological and morphometric variables.

This retrospective cohort study was conducted between 2011 and 2019 at Karadeniz Technical University (KTU) Farabi Hospital. The dataset included 56 variables derived from 204 thyroid nodules diagnosed via ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) in 183 patients over 18 years. Logistic regression (LR) and SEM were used to identify risk factors for early thyroid cancer detection. Subsequently, machine learning algorithms—including Support Vector Machines (SVM), Naive Bayes (NB), and Decision Trees (DT) were used to construct decision support models.

After feature selection with SEM, the SVM model achieved the highest performance, with an accuracy of 82 %, a specificity of 97 %, and an AUC value of 84 %. Additional models were developed for different scenarios, and their performance metrics were compared. Accurate preoperative prediction of malignancy in thyroid nodules is crucial for avoiding unnecessary surgeries. The proposed model supports more informed clinical decision-making by effectively identifying benign cases, thereby reducing surgical risk and improving patient care.