R F Shagdaleev, E A Toneev, A A Martynov, M A Belova, A D Teryagova
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Abstract
Objective: To develop a nomogram and risk assessment calculator for prolonged pleural effusion after lobectomy for lung cancer.
Material and methods: The study was conducted at the Thoracic Oncology Surgery Department of the Ulyanovsk Regional Oncology Dispensary. Patients who underwent lobectomy between January 1, 2022 and January 1, 2024 were included (database registration state No. 2024622456). There were 78 patients including 48 ones without prolonged pleural effusion (PPE) and 30 ones with this complication. After statistical analysis, data bootstrapping and logistic regression calibration based on artificial intelligence machine learning were carried out.
Results: The incidence of PPE was 30/78 (39%). Multivariate statistical analysis revealed the following significant factors: neutrophil-lymphocyte index after 4-5 days, leukocyte count in pleural fluid after 2 and 4-5 days, as well as drainage output after 4-5 days. Prognostic model showed high sensitivity (71%) and specificity (89.4%). A decision tree was obtained depending on surgical approach.
Conclusion: The first prognostic model and interactive calculator for assessing the risk of PPE after lobectomy were developed.
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