Identifying those at risk: predicting patient factors associated with worse EGS outcomes.

IF 2.1 Q3 CRITICAL CARE MEDICINE
Trauma Surgery & Acute Care Open Pub Date : 2025-05-28 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1136/tsaco-2024-001690
Komal Abdul Rahim, Namra Qadeer Shaikh, Maryam Pyar Ali Lakhdir, Asma Altaf Hussain Merchant, Noreen Afzal, Saad Bin Zafar Mahmood, Saqib Kamran Bakhshi, Mushyada Ali, Zainab Samad, Adil H Haider
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Comorbidity has a detrimental impact on Emergency General Surgery (EGS) outcomes. In lesser-developed countries with inconsistent documentation of comorbid conditions, undiagnosed and progressively worsening comorbidities can worsen EGS outcomes. We aimed to discern the comorbidity index as a predictor of complications and inpatient mortality in EGS using a large South Asian sample population.

Materials and methods: Data of adult patients with AAST-defined EGS diagnoses at primary index admission from 2010 to 2019 were retrieved. Patients were categorized into predefined EGS groups using ICD-9 CM codes. Primary exposure was comorbidity using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). The primary outcome was inpatient mortality, and the secondary outcome was complication status. Multiple logistic and Cox regression with Weibull distribution was performed.

Results: Analysis of 32 280 patients showed a mean age of 40.06±16.87 years. Overall comorbidity, inpatient mortality, and complication rates were 44.6%, 2.42% and 36.37%, respectively. Patients with moderate CCI had the highest complications (AOR 6.61, 95% CI 5.91, 7.37), and severe comorbidity had the highest hazards (AOR 3.79, 95% CI 2.89, 4.98). Male gender, increasing age, emergent admission status, and lack of insurance were associated with moderate and severe CCI, resulting in prolonged length of stay (5.72 and 5.83 days), reduced survival time (20.04 and 21.95 days), and higher mortality rates (10.52% and 9.48%).

Conclusions: We identified predictive patient-level factors associated with higher CCI and worse EGS outcomes. Our findings can help stratify population subsets at risk of worse outcomes, provide valuable insight into disease progression, and aid decision-making in EGS patients.

Level of evidence: III.

识别高危人群:预测与较差EGS结果相关的患者因素。
背景:合并症对急诊普通外科手术(EGS)的预后有不利影响。在合并症记录不一致的欠发达国家,未确诊和逐渐恶化的合并症可使EGS结果恶化。我们的目的是通过南亚大样本人群来辨别合并症指数作为EGS并发症和住院死亡率的预测因子。材料与方法:检索2010 - 2019年主要指标入院时诊断为aast定义的EGS的成年患者的数据。使用ICD-9 CM代码将患者分为预定义的EGS组。用Charlson共病指数(CCI)测定首次暴露为共病。主要结局是住院死亡率,次要结局是并发症状态。采用威布尔分布进行多元logistic回归和Cox回归。结果:分析32 280例患者,平均年龄40.06±16.87岁。总合并症、住院死亡率和并发症发生率分别为44.6%、2.42%和36.37%。中度CCI患者的并发症最高(AOR 6.61, 95% CI 5.91, 7.37),严重合并症的风险最高(AOR 3.79, 95% CI 2.89, 4.98)。男性、年龄增长、紧急入院情况和缺乏保险与中重度CCI相关,导致住院时间延长(5.72天和5.83天),生存时间缩短(20.04天和21.95天),死亡率升高(10.52%和9.48%)。结论:我们确定了与较高CCI和较差EGS结果相关的预测性患者水平因素。我们的研究结果有助于对预后较差的人群亚群进行分层,为疾病进展提供有价值的见解,并有助于EGS患者的决策。证据水平:III。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.70
自引率
5.00%
发文量
71
审稿时长
12 weeks
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