Optimizing rooftop photovoltaic adoption in urban landscapes: A system dynamics approach for sustainable energy transitions in Chennai, India

Abstract

Chennai, a rapidly growing metropolitan city in India, faces increasing energy needs, sustainability challenges, and environmental impacts due to population growth. The surge in electricity demand across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors has heightened greenhouse gas emissions and reliance on non-renewable energy sources, sparking interest in rooftop PV systems. These systems harness solar energy to generate electricity locally, reducing grid strain and carbon emissions, aligning with UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 7 and 11 by promoting clean energy and sustainable urban environments. Despite their potential, rooftop PV adoption in Chennai's building sector has been slow due to various barriers. Addressing escalating energy demands and environmental concerns, this study develops a data-driven System Dynamics Model to simulate the dynamics of rooftop PV scaling. The model considers socio-economic, regulatory, and technical factors, including market analysis, regulatory assessments, techno-economic feasibility evaluations, and public perception surveys. The System Dynamics Model allows for scenario analysis and predictive modeling, outlining strategic interventions, policy recommendations, and measures to streamline regulations and improve financing accessibility. This approach combines data-driven analysis, scenario testing, adaptability, and transparency, offering a robust method for developing a roadmap for rooftop PV scale-up in Chennai's building sector. The paper highlights the advantages of this method, enhancing the effectiveness and likelihood of successful rooftop PV adoption compared to alternatives. This study aims to serve as a progressive model for cities globally, demonstrating the efficacy of a systematic, data-driven approach to advancing sustainable energy transitions in urban landscapes.