Multisource-domain regression transfer learning framework for predicting student academic performance considering balanced similarity

Abstract

The increasing integration of information technology and artificial intelligence has extensively implemented computer-aided intelligent education systems in higher education. A critical task within these systems is student performance prediction, which forecasts future academic outcomes by analyzing data such as historical grades, learning behaviors, and classroom participation. This enables early intervention and personalized teaching based on scientific evidence. However, most existing methods rely on traditional machine learning techniques, which can hardly address issues such as domain distribution discrepancies and data imbalance effectively. To overcome these challenges, we propose a multisource-domain transfer learning regression framework that integrates domain selection, hybrid feature extraction, and dynamic joint distribution adaptation techniques. Specifically, the framework first selects appropriate source domains on the basis of preset thresholds via cross-validation. Thereafter, a hybrid feature extractor is used to derive (i) common features from the target and selected source domains and (ii) domain-specific features from the target domain. Finally, a dynamic adaptive factor is introduced to balance differences between the marginal and conditional distributions. Experimental results indicate that the proposed framework significantly reduces the root mean square error with an average prediction improvement of 21.05 %, compared with baseline methods and other advanced approaches.