Crystal Ball in a Blood's Drop: Unlocking Hidden Prognostic Power in the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) and the Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (PLR) for Elderly Hip Fracture Patients.

Abstract

Background/Objectives: Hip fractures in elderly patients are associated with high morbidity and mortality, requiring early risk stratification to optimize management. Systemic inflammatory markers such as the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) have emerged as potential prognostic tools. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the NLR and PLR measured at admission for adverse outcomes following hip fracture surgery in elderly patients. Methods: This retrospective, single-center cohort study included patients aged 65 years or older admitted for hip fractures between January 2019 and December 2023. Baseline demographic, clinical, surgical, and laboratory data were collected. Primary outcomes were 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality; secondary outcomes included postoperative ICU admission and prolonged hospitalization (>15 days). Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis determined optimal cut-offs for the NLR and PLR. Results: Among 395 included patients (mean age 84 years, 56.4% female), the 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality rates were 4.8%, 10.5%, and 13.9%, respectively. ROC analysis identified cut-offs of 7.2 for the NLR (AUC 0.78, sensitivity 69.7%, specificity 85.4%) and 189.4 for the PLR (AUC 0.73, sensitivity 65.1%, specificity 76.1%). Elevated NLR and PLR were independently associated with increased risk of mortality, ICU admission, and prolonged hospitalization. Conclusions: Elevated NLR and PLR at admission are independent, strong predictors of adverse outcomes in elderly patients with hip fractures. These inexpensive, readily available biomarkers could enhance early risk stratification and inform perioperative management strategies.