A non-invasive nomogram for the prediction of poor prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma based on the novel marker Interleukin-41.

Abstract

Death and tumor recurrence are both important adverse prognostic factors for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) patients. This article aims to discuss the risk factors for recurrence and death in patients with HCC after R0 resection, and to establish a nomogram model for predicting the recurrence and death of HCC patients.A total of 224 HCC patients after R0 resection were enrolled and divided into a training cohort (n = 149) and a validation cohort (n = 75) The risk factors for recurrence and death were determined based on cox regression analysis. A nomogram containing independent risk predictors was established and validated.The recurrence rate of 224 cases of HCC after R0 resection was 43.30%. The high expression of interleukin-41(IL41) (HR = 2.446, P = 0.000), intratumoral artery (HR = 1.862, P = 0.005), and MVI1 subgroup of microvascular invasion(MVI) grade (HR = 1.541, P = 0.031) are independent risk factors associated with recurrence after resection of HCC. The mortality rate was 15.63%. The high expression of IL-41 (HR = 4.679, P = 0.000), tumor size ≥ 5 cm (HR = 3.745, P = 0.001), and Aspartate transaminase(AST) concentration 45-90u/L (HR = 2.837, P = 0.015) are independent risk factors associated with mortality. Interleukin-41(IL-41), microvascular invasion(MVI), and intratumoral artery are independent risk factors for recurrence after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma. IL-41, tumor size, and Aspartate transaminase(AST) are independent risk factors for death after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma. We developed and validated two multivariate nomograms, and conducted validation. The nomogram models have achieved ideal results in predicting the recurrence and death of HCC patients.