Beyond Thriving Cities and Declining Rural Areas: Mapping Geographic Divides in Germany's Employment Structure, 1993-2019.

Abstract

This article assesses the popular thesis of growing regional inequality and urban-rural divides for Germany, focusing on the quality of employment opportunities. Drawing on a 2% sample of individuals registered in the German social security system over the period 1993-2019, we examine the level and evolution of employment opportunities along three established geographic divides-urban-rural, east-west, and north-south-at the small-scale level of districts (330 Kreisregionen). Occupation groups were ranked by median wage and assigned to quintiles to trace whether different districts experience diverging changes in their occupation structures. Our findings confirm significant urban-rural divides in the quality of employment opportunities, as upgrading has been much stronger in urban districts. Yet the differences we observe on an aggregated German level are also influenced by north-south and east-west divides, as these divides partially align. While some smaller cities and urban districts, mostly in southern Germany, have seen an above-average increase in high-wage jobs, most eastern German districts and many northwestern districts are still struggling to catch up with national upgrading trends. Our study thus shows that geographic polarization in Germany goes beyond simple urban-rural divides. Moreover, it demonstrates how examining the quality of employment opportunities provides long-term and spatially detailed indicators for studying geographic divides that capture a tangible aspect of regionally diverging life chances.