Land Use Land Cover as a Potential Driver of Surface Air Temperature Change Over India

Abstract

Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change is a critical aspect of anthropogenic climate change, with significant implications for the regional and local climate. In India, substantial alterations in LULC patterns have occurred over recent decades, driven by deforestation, urbanization, agricultural expansion, and industrialization. These transformations have impacted local environments and modulated regional climate dynamics, exhibiting considerable variability and uncertainty. This study utilizes gridded and in situ data products to analyze the effects of LULC change on surface air temperature (SAT) in India. Findings indicate that LULC changes have contributed to an increase of approximately 0.54°C in Southern India and 0.44°C in Eastern India, while the North-Western region has experienced a decrease of about 1.5°C. The observed disparities in SAT changes necessitate a comprehensive examination involving multiple variables and evidence. To further elucidate these findings, LULC quantification was conducted to identify the specific types of LULC changes across the three regions. The analysis reveals that the underlying causes of LULC change vary significantly among these regions, enhancing the robustness of the results. In addition, a notable 40%–60% increase in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and an 80%–90% rise in evapotranspiration (ET) were recorded in North-Western India as supplementary evidence. This study underscores the need for high-resolution LULC datasets to accurately assess the class-specific contributions to SAT variations across regions. Furthermore, the study points out the necessity for high-resolution modeling approaches to mitigate existing uncertainties in the analysis.