Lower Limb Arthroplasties in Colombia: Projections for 2050 Based on Official Records.

IF 2.2
Yesika Natali Fernández-Ortiz, Jorge Martín Rodríguez-Hernández
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Population ageing is driving a growing demand for orthopedic surgical procedures. The rise in chronic conditions such as osteoarthritis significantly contributes to disability among older adults, particularly women, and primarily affects the hip and knee joints, thereby increasing the need for arthroplasties.

Objective: To determine the future demand for lower limb arthroplasty procedures among individuals aged 60 and over in Colombia up to 2050, using official public health records and national demographic projections.

Methods: This study used an observational longitudinal retrospective design, using a Poisson regression model with official records from the Integrated Social Protection Information System-which consolidates procedures reported by both public and private healthcare service providers-to identify lower limb arthroplasties performed between 2015 and 2023. Population projections from the National Department of Statistics were incorporated to model future demand, accounting for demographic ageing and mortality trends. An additional analysis was conducted by sex and the most prevalent types of arthroplasties.

Results: A total of 62,728 procedures took place from 2015 to 2023, with women undergoing approximately twice as many as men. The highest intervention rates occurred in the 65-69 and ≥80 age groups. By 2050, projections indicate the number of procedures will reach 39,270, with 52.7% projected among women.

Conclusions: This study reports demographic trends in arthroplasties between 2015 and 2023 and offers insights into the anticipated future burden of lower limb arthroplasties among Colombia's older population.

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哥伦比亚下肢置换:基于官方记录的2050年预测。
人口老龄化正在推动整形外科手术需求的增长。骨关节炎等慢性疾病的增加显著地导致了老年人,特别是女性的残疾,并且主要影响髋关节和膝关节,从而增加了对关节置换术的需求。目的:利用官方公共卫生记录和国家人口预测,确定到2050年哥伦比亚60岁及以上人群对下肢关节置换术的未来需求。方法:本研究采用观察性纵向回顾性设计,使用泊松回归模型和综合社会保护信息系统的官方记录,该系统整合了公共和私人医疗保健服务提供者报告的程序,以确定2015年至2023年间进行的下肢关节置换术。考虑到人口老龄化和死亡率趋势,国家统计局的人口预测被纳入未来需求模型。另一项分析是按性别和最常见的关节置换类型进行的。结果:从2015年到2023年,总共进行了62,728例手术,女性的手术数量大约是男性的两倍。干预率最高的是65-69岁和≥80岁年龄组。预测显示,到2050年,手术数量将达到39,270例,其中52.7%为女性。结论:本研究报告了2015年至2023年间关节置换术的人口趋势,并对哥伦比亚老年人口中下肢关节置换术的预期未来负担提供了见解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.60
自引率
0.00%
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0
审稿时长
7 weeks
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