Assessing the impact of climate change on habitat shifts of typical endemic relict trees in China

Abstract

Extensive evidence supports that global climate change influences shifts in species habitats due to alterations in hydrothermal conditions; however, neglecting dispersal capacities and limits significantly heightens uncertainties regarding spatial distribution patterns among different organisms. This study presents novel insights into how climate change, land use practices, and ecological interactions drive changes in habitats occupied by Chinese Endemic Relict Trees (CERT) (Pseudotaxus chienii, Pseudolarix amabilis, Metasequoia glyptostroboides, Glyptostrobus pensilis, Ginkgo biloba, and Cathaya argyrophylla), using current (2000–2020) occurrence data and specific environmental variables for each individual tree. The optimized MaxEnt and MigClim models enabled us to forecast potential colonizable habitats under the paleoclimatic condition and future two emission scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585), assess alterations across the aggregation area of six trees over periods, and identify focal points for future efforts aimed at conserving biocultural diversity. Our findings showed that: (1) Temperature-precipitation-related factors predominantly drove expansion or contraction trends within habitats occupied by CERT, and land use has occupied many more habitats; although prospects appear promising under the SSP126 scenario, it also entailed substantial losses of G. pensilis. (2) Habitat decline and fragmentation are particularly pronounced in the two provinces, Hunan and Jiangxi, with limited spread observed in Yunnan Province. The diminishing range of M. glyptostroboides and G. pensilis notable in northern Guangdong as well as northeastern Guangxi Province. (3). By the end of this century, the southeast coast and central China are expected to experience greater long-term stability. In conclusion, this research minimizes uncertainties associated with projecting species distributions within changing climates while offering theoretical backing for safeguarding biocultural diversity in the future.