Quantifying control measures for lumpy skin disease in cattle using a vector–host transmission model

Abstract

Purpose:

This study aims to develop a mathematical model to understand and control the spread of lumpy skin disease in cattle populations, incorporating blood-sucking insects as vectors.

Research Question:

How can the interaction between cattle and vectors be effectively modeled to assess the impact of control strategies such as quarantine and treatment on the transmission of lumpy skin disease?

Methodology:

The population dynamics are modeled using the SLIQR-SL framework, categorizing cattle into six disease states and vectors into two states. Stability analysis is performed to identify equilibrium points, and the basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is calculated to evaluate disease persistence or eradication conditions. Numerical simulations are conducted to assess various control strategies.

Validation:

The model’s predictions are validated through numerical examples, demonstrating its ability to replicate observed transmission patterns and evaluate control measures.

Results:

The analysis reveals that when $R_0<1$, lumpy skin disease can be eradicated, but when $R_0>1$, the disease persists. Numerical simulations highlight the critical role of quarantine and treatment in significantly reducing disease prevalence.

Significance:

The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers and veterinarians, emphasizing the importance of integrated control strategies in mitigating lumpy skin disease outbreaks and minimizing economic losses.