Multi-dimensional risk assessment (MDRA) of oil spills on the northern coasts of the Persian Gulf

Abstract

The assessment of oil spill risks in the marine environments is critical for decision-makers and coastal manager to mitigate adverse environmental, social, and economic impacts. This study developed a comprehensive multi-dimensional stochastic methodology to consider the oil spill risks through three integrated phases: occurrence, exposure, and susceptibility analyses. The northern coastline of the Persian Gulf (PG), an area of noteworthy economic and biological resources, is selected as a case study due to its vulnerability to oil pollution. By integrating historical spill data, environmental sensitivity indices, and a state-of-the-art oil trajectory model (GNOME/ADIOS), a high-resolution risk map is generated. The results indicate that approximately 46 % of the study area is categorized as high to very high-risk levels, highlighting the urgency of targeted mitigation efforts. Critical regions such as Qeshm and Kish Islands are prioritized for emergency response and preparedness resources, including spill containment and cleanup equipment (e.g., booms, skimmers). The proposed methodology serves as a practical tool for coastal authorities, marine environmental managers, and response planning teams. It enables informed decision-making to enhance preparedness and response strategies. In addition, the framework presents a scalable approach of developing high-resolution risk maps for any coastal region anywhere in the world, which entails the assessment of environmental sensibilities, ecological vulnerabilities, and the integrated deterministic model of oil spills along with the hydrodynamic behavior.