A landslide tsunami hazard assessment in the Makran Subduction Zone

IF 2.6 3区地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Marine Geology Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI:10.1016/j.margeo.2025.107580

Amin Rashidi , Mohammad Mokhtari , Katsuichiro Goda , Mehdi Masoodi , Parvaneh Faridi

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Abstract

Seismic profiles have revealed historical submarine landslides within the western part of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ). A specific underwater landslide, identified off the coast of Chabahar, Iran, has been modeled to assess the potential hazard of the resultant tsunami waves in the MSZ. This submerged landslide near Chabahar has a volume of 7 km³. To evaluate the tsunami hazard, three scenarios have been developed: one static and two dynamic. According to the simulations, Chabahar experiences high waves, reaching heights of 5 m around its coast, with corresponding runup amplitudes of up to 10 m. Emphasizing the significance of dynamic considerations in understanding the tsunamigenesis of submarine landslides, the two dynamic scenarios differ primarily in landslide travel distance and, consequently, duration. The numerical modeling outcomes indicate that the dynamic scenario with the longer travel distance yields higher tsunami waves, reaching a maximum height of 15 m in the Oman Sea. Conversely, the other dynamic scenario generates waves with amplitudes similar to those produced in the static scenario. It takes about 15 min for the tsunami to reach Chabahar Station. Major ports in the region, including Chabahar, Jask, Muscat, and Sur, face elevated threats from the potential impact of this landslide-triggered tsunami. Notably, the shoreline of Pakistan exhibits a comparatively lower threat level in contrast to Iran and Oman. Looking ahead, future studies aim to compile a comprehensive database of tsunamigenic scenarios based on all potential landslides identified through seismic sections and bathymetry topology. This will enhance our understanding of the region's tsunami hazard from landslide-tsunamis.

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马克兰俯冲带滑坡海啸灾害评估

地震剖面揭示了马克兰俯冲带（MSZ）西部历史上的海底滑坡。在伊朗恰巴哈尔海岸外发现了一种特殊的水下滑坡，并对其进行了建模，以评估由此产生的海啸波对MSZ的潜在危害。恰巴哈尔附近的淹没滑坡体积为7立方公里。为了评估海啸危害，开发了三种情景：一种静态情景和两种动态情景。根据模拟，恰巴哈尔经历了高海浪，在其海岸周围达到5米的高度，相应的上升幅度高达10米。强调动态因素对理解海底滑坡海啸成因的重要性，两种动态情景主要在滑坡移动距离和持续时间上有所不同。数值模拟结果表明，动力情景下传播距离越远，产生的海啸浪高越高，阿曼海海啸浪高最高可达15 m。相反，另一个动态场景产生的波与静态场景产生的波的振幅相似。海啸大约需要15分钟到达恰巴哈尔站。该地区的主要港口，包括恰巴哈尔、贾斯克、马斯喀特和苏尔，面临着山体滑坡引发的海啸潜在影响带来的更大威胁。值得注意的是，与伊朗和阿曼相比，巴基斯坦海岸线的威胁程度相对较低。展望未来，未来的研究目标是在通过地震剖面和测深拓扑学确定的所有潜在滑坡的基础上，编制一个海啸发生情景的综合数据库。这将增强我们对该地区山体滑坡海啸灾害的认识。

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来源期刊

Marine Geology 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

6.10

自引率

6.90%

发文量

175

审稿时长

21.9 weeks

期刊介绍： Marine Geology is the premier international journal on marine geological processes in the broadest sense. We seek papers that are comprehensive, interdisciplinary and synthetic that will be lasting contributions to the field. Although most papers are based on regional studies, they must demonstrate new findings of international significance. We accept papers on subjects as diverse as seafloor hydrothermal systems, beach dynamics, early diagenesis, microbiological studies in sediments, palaeoclimate studies and geophysical studies of the seabed. We encourage papers that address emerging new fields, for example the influence of anthropogenic processes on coastal/marine geology and coastal/marine geoarchaeology. We insist that the papers are concerned with the marine realm and that they deal with geology: with rocks, sediments, and physical and chemical processes affecting them. Papers should address scientific hypotheses: highly descriptive data compilations or papers that deal only with marine management and risk assessment should be submitted to other journals. Papers on laboratory or modelling studies must demonstrate direct relevance to marine processes or deposits. The primary criteria for acceptance of papers is that the science is of high quality, novel, significant, and of broad international interest.