Economic complexity and divergent population growth by race and rurality.

Abstract

Economic complexity (EC) measures the diversification and domestic comparative advantage of industry in an economy. Originally applied to studies of global economic development, dominant frameworks suggest the extent of a place's economic capabilities underlies its economic and population growth potential and ascribe to the universalistic notion that economic growth generates population growth. Limited research has extended the observed linkages between EC and economic and population growth in a subnational context, focusing solely on metropolitan/micropolitan contexts and neglecting potential spatialized forces that might promote variation in the relationship, especially in rural areas. After computing EC estimates for Commuting Zones (CZs), a typology inclusive of metropolitan, micropolitan, and non-metropolitan areas, we use spatial modeling techniques to investigate whether economic complexity relates to population growth and net in-migration uniformly by rurality and for ethnoracial groups. In contrast to universalistic assumptions and our expectations that complexity would be less predictive of growth in non-metro contexts, we find that higher EC more strongly associates with population growth and net in-migration in non-metro contexts. Our findings also suggest that there is a racial dimension to EC, with higher EC CZs experiencing net-inflows of White populations and net-outflows of Asian, Black, Hispanic, and Indigenous populations. Study results suggest spatially and racially disparate implications of regional economic growth and development, challenging conventional assumptions of the widely distributed benefits of economic development on less resourced ethnoracial groups, especially in non-metro contexts.