Interrupted time series analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on emergency and elective surgeries in Iranian hospitals.

Abstract

Background: Emergency and elective surgeries are vital for saving lives and enhancing patient wellbeing. However, COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the provision of surgical services in Iranian hospitals and globally.

Aim: To investigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on emergency and elective surgical care in Iranian hospitals.

Methods: Using an interrupted time series analysis, we evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on emergency and elective surgeries in western Islamic Republic of Iran between January 2017 and December 2023, using February 2020 as the intervention point. We analysed the data with R software Version 4.3.2 and used a segmented regression model to analyse the pre- and post-COVID-19 trends, ensuring the reliability of results by using Durbin-Watson statistic and autocorrection techniques. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results: Pre-pandemic, the mean monthly number of emergency surgeries was 258.9. Due to the pandemic there was a significant decrease by 359.6; however, we observed a gradual recovery in surgical activity with an average increase of 15.8 surgeries above the pre-pandemic levels. The mean monthly number of elective surgeries before the pandemic was 199.5. After the onset of the pandemic, we found a significant decrease of 85.37, although there was a gradual recovery over time.

Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted surgical services in Iranian hospitals, causing a reallocation of resources to COVID-19 care and postponement of non-urgent surgeries. There is a need for strategic planning and policy interventions to ensure continuity of surgical care during health emergencies.