Global burden of asthma among children and adolescents with projections to 2050: a comprehensive review and forecasted modeling study.

Abstract

Understanding pediatric asthma is crucial to its effective diagnosis and intervention, as it may alleviate the adulthood disease burden. This epidemiological review describes the prevalence of asthma among individuals under 20 years of age by categorizing them into 3 age groups: 1-4, 5-9, and 10-19 years. Estimates were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, which covered the prevalence of asthma from 1990 to 2021 across 21 GBD regions with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We also projected the prevalence of pediatric asthma in 2050 by using a logistic regression predictive model from the existing literature and incorporating body mass index as a covariate with fixed coefficients over time. Overall, a continuous decline in asthma prevalence rates among children and adolescents was observed from 1990 to 2021, with higher rates in males and a peak prevalence rate in the 5-9 years group. Central Europe showed significantly increased prevalence rates compared to those of other regions. Our projection suggests that the prevalence rate of pediatric asthma will decline to approximately 2,608.05 per 100,000 population by 2050 (95% UI, 1,632.94-3,868.26), representing a 39.5% decrease from the 2021 figures. Despite these trends, asthma remains a substantial health burden for children and adolescents that may persist into adulthood. Therefore, proactive diagnosis and intervention are essential to mitigating the associated disease burden.