A deep learning model for clinical outcome prediction using longitudinal inpatient electronic health records.

Abstract

Objectives: Recent advances in deep learning show significant potential in analyzing continuous monitoring electronic health records (EHR) data for clinical outcome prediction. We aim to develop a Transformer-based, Encounter-level Clinical Outcome (TECO) model to predict mortality in the intensive care unit (ICU) using inpatient EHR data.

Materials and methods: The TECO model was developed using multiple baseline and time-dependent clinical variables from 2579 hospitalized COVID-19 patients to predict ICU mortality and was validated externally in an acute respiratory distress syndrome cohort (n = 2799) and a sepsis cohort (n = 6622) from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV). Model performance was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) and compared with Epic Deterioration Index (EDI), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost).

Results: In the COVID-19 development dataset, TECO achieved higher AUC (0.89-0.97) across various time intervals compared to EDI (0.86-0.95), RF (0.87-0.96), and XGBoost (0.88-0.96). In the 2 MIMIC testing datasets (EDI not available), TECO yielded higher AUC (0.65-0.77) than RF (0.59-0.75) and XGBoost (0.59-0.74). In addition, TECO was able to identify clinically interpretable features that were correlated with the outcome.

Discussion: The TECO model outperformed proprietary metrics and conventional machine learning models in predicting ICU mortality among patients with COVID-19, widespread inflammation, respiratory illness, and other organ failures.

Conclusion: The TECO model demonstrates a strong capability for predicting ICU mortality using continuous monitoring data. While further validation is needed, TECO has the potential to serve as a powerful early warning tool across various diseases in inpatient settings.