The recent and future PM2.5-related health burden in China apportioned by emission source.

Abstract

This study estimated PM_2.5 (atmospheric fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µg) concentrations and the health burden in mainland China from 2010 to 2049 under two scenarios: Current Legistaions and Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions. We assess premature deaths from PM_2.5 exposure, examining sources like coal combustion, biomass burning, industry, and tailpipe emission from on-road transport. Results show that central and eastern China account for 75% of PM_2.5-related deaths, with biomass burning (40%) and industry (34%) as primary contributors. Under the Current Legistaions and Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions scenarios, PM_2.5-related premature deaths are projected to decrease by 43% and 80% (linear EVA) and by 28% increase and 40% decrease (nonlinear EVA) from 2010 to 2049. Assuming a linear relationship, the Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions scenario estimates that reduced PM_2.5 exposure could avoid 1.55 million premature deaths annually by 2049 compared to 2010, primarily from coal combustion for heating, biomass burning, industry, and tailpipe emission from on-road transport.