Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Unplanned Readmission Due to Major Adverse Cardiac Events Among Hospitalized Patients with Blood Cancers.

Abstract

BackgroundHospitalized patients with blood cancer face an elevated risk for cardiovascular diseases caused by cardiotoxic cancer therapies, which can lead to cardiovascular-related unplanned readmissions.ObjectiveWe aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model to predict 90-day unplanned readmissions for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in hospitalized patients with blood cancers.DesignA retrospective population-based cohort study.MethodsWe analyzed patients aged ≥18 with blood cancers (leukemia, lymphoma, myeloma) using the Nationwide Readmissions Database. MACE included acute myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, stroke, heart failure, revascularization, malignant arrhythmias, and cardiovascular-related death. Six ML algorithms (L2-Logistic regression, Support Vector Machine, Complement Naïve Bayes, Random Forest, XGBoost, and CatBoost) were trained on 2017-2018 data and tested on 2019 data. The SuperLearner algorithm was used for stacking models. Cost-sensitive learning addressed data imbalance, and hyperparameters were tuned using 5-fold cross-validation with Optuna framework. Performance metrics included the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (ROCAUC), Precision-Recall AUC (PRAUC), balanced Brier score, and F2 score. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values assessed feature importance, and clustering analysis identified high-risk subpopulations.ResultsAmong 76 957 patients, 1031 (1.34%) experienced unplanned 90-day MACE-related readmissions. CatBoost achieved the highest ROCAUC (0.737, 95% CI: 0.712-0.763) and PRAUC (0.040, 95% CI: 0.033-0.050). The SuperLearner algorithm achieved slight improvements in most performance metrics. Four leading predictive features were consistently identified across algorithms, including older age, heart failure, coronary atherosclerosis, and cardiac dysrhythmias. Twenty-three clusters were determined with the highest-risk cluster (mean log odds of 1.41) identified by nonrheumatic/unspecified valve disorders, coronary atherosclerosis, and heart failure.ConclusionsOur ML model effectively predicts MACE-related readmissions in hospitalized patients with blood cancers, highlighting key predictors. Targeted discharge strategies may help reduce readmissions and alleviate the associated healthcare burden.