Projection of the Prevalence and Economic Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease in Taiwan From 2022 to 2027 (Inside CKD): A Microsimulation Study.

IF 2.4 4区医学 Q2 UROLOGY & NEPHROLOGY

Nephrology Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI:10.1111/nep.70055

I-Wen Wu, Mei-Yi Wu, Salvatore Barone, Claudia Cabrera, Juan Jose Garcia Sanchez, Lise Retat, Markiyan Mitchyn, Mai-Szu Wu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Aim: This study aimed to project the epidemiology of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its economic impact in Taiwan from 2022 to 2027 using a microsimulation model.

Methods: A virtual representative population of Taiwan was generated using demographic data. The cohort then underwent annual progression using a validated patient-level microsimulation technique, projecting CKD onset and progression based on various factors, including age, sex, eGFR, and urine albumin level. The model also incorporated associated comorbidities like type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension and complications such as heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Healthcare costs associated with diagnosed CKD and kidney replacement therapy (KRT) were also projected.

Results: In 2022, an estimated 10.6% of the total population (2.5 million individuals) in Taiwan were affected by documented or undiagnosed CKD. Without changes in care standards, this prevalence is projected to rise to 12.4% (3.0 million individuals) by 2027, a relative increase of 17.1%. The prevalence of KRT is expected to grow by 7.0% from 2022 to 2027. Complications related to CKD, including heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke, are also projected to increase. The annual healthcare costs for diagnosed CKD and KRT are anticipated to rise by 19.7% from TWD $51.96 billion in 2022 to TWD $62.18 billion in 2027.

Conclusion: The projections underscore the escalating burden of CKD in Taiwan, emphasising the need for proactive strategies focusing on early diagnosis, effective management, and public awareness to mitigate the disease's socioeconomic impact.

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台湾2022至2027年慢性肾脏疾病患病率及经济负担预测（Inside CKD）：微观模拟研究

目的：本研究采用微观模拟模型，预测2022 - 2027年台湾地区慢性肾脏疾病（CKD）流行病学及其经济影响。方法：利用人口统计资料，生成台湾地区的虚拟代表性人口。然后，该队列使用经过验证的患者级微模拟技术进行年度进展，根据各种因素（包括年龄、性别、eGFR和尿白蛋白水平）预测CKD的发病和进展。该模型还纳入了相关的合并症，如2型糖尿病和高血压，以及心力衰竭、心肌梗死和中风等并发症。与诊断为CKD和肾脏替代治疗（KRT）相关的医疗费用也进行了预测。结果：2022年，台湾估计有10.6%的总人口（250万人）受到记录或未诊断的CKD的影响。如果不改变护理标准，到2027年，这一患病率预计将上升到12.4%（300万人），相对增长17.1%。预计从2022年到2027年，KRT的流行率将增长7.0%。与CKD相关的并发症，包括心力衰竭、心肌梗死和中风，预计也会增加。诊断为CKD和KRT的年度医疗费用预计将从2022年的519.6亿新元增加到2027年的621.8亿新元，增长19.7%。结论：这些预测强调了台湾CKD负担不断增加，强调需要采取积极主动的策略，重点是早期诊断，有效管理和公众意识，以减轻疾病的社会经济影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Nephrology 医学-泌尿学与肾脏学

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

4.00%

发文量

128

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Nephrology is published eight times per year by the Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology. It has a special emphasis on the needs of Clinical Nephrologists and those in developing countries. The journal publishes reviews and papers of international interest describing original research concerned with clinical and experimental aspects of nephrology.