Predictive value of the American college of surgeons "surgical risk calculator" (ACS-NSQIP SRC) for plastic and reconstructive surgery: a validation study from an academic tertiary referral center in Germany.

IF 2.1 Q1 SURGERY

Patient Safety in Surgery Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI:10.1186/s13037-025-00438-y

Florian Bucher, Martynas Tamulevicius, Nadjib Dastagir, Catherine Fuentes Alvarado, Doha Obed, Khaled Dastagir, Peter M Vogt

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Abstract

Aims: The American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS-NSQIP SRC) was designed to predict morbidity and mortality in order to help providing informed consent. This study evaluated its performance in the field of plastic and reconstructive surgery for patients undergoing body contouring and breast reconstruction procedures.

Methods: A retrospective analysis of patients undergoing body contouring and breast reconstruction procedures from January 1, 2022 to November 1, 2024 was performed.

Results: The ACS-NSQIP SRC showed good prediction only for severe complications in patients undergoing breast reconstruction with DIEP flap (AUC = 0.727); overall prediction and calibration for the remaining 15 subgroups was poor. The incidence of overall and general complications, as well as length of hospital stay was underestimated.

Conclusions: The overall performance of the ACS-NSQIP SRC was poor, a finding that underlines the importance of individual decision-making, also considering the surgeon's expertise and patient-specific characteristics.

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美国外科医师学会“手术风险计算器”（ACS-NSQIP SRC）对整形和重建手术的预测价值：来自德国某学术三级转诊中心的验证研究

目的：美国外科医师学会手术风险计算器（ACS-NSQIP SRC）旨在预测发病率和死亡率，以帮助提供知情同意。本研究评估了其在整形和重建手术领域的表现，用于接受身体轮廓和乳房重建手术的患者。方法：回顾性分析2022年1月1日至2024年11月1日行形体塑形及乳房重建术的患者。结果：ACS-NSQIP SRC仅对DIEP皮瓣重建患者的严重并发症有较好的预测（AUC = 0.727）；其余15个亚组的总体预测和校准较差。总体和一般并发症的发生率以及住院时间都被低估了。结论：ACS-NSQIP SRC的总体表现较差，这一发现强调了个人决策的重要性，也考虑了外科医生的专业知识和患者的具体特征。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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