Analysis of the Demand and Supply for Oncology Workforce in Jordan: Current Status and Future Projections.

Abstract

Purpose: Jordan, a lower-middle-income country in the Middle East, faces a growing cancer burden coupled with a shortage of skilled oncologists, which challenges the delivery of high-quality cancer care. This study assessed the current and future oncology workforce to evaluate Jordan's capacity to meet cancer care demands.

Materials and methods: This multifaceted study evaluated the supply and demand for oncologists in Jordan by quantifying the current workforce and projecting future growth, considering the number of physicians passing board exams over the past 5 years and medical students' interest in oncology, as indicated by survey data collected from Jordanian medical students.

Results: In 2023, Jordan had 110 medical oncologists (9.8 per million population [PMP]), 64 radiation oncologists (5.7 PMP), and 36 surgical oncologists (3.2 PMP). Workforce density in the United States was 4.2 times and in the United Kingdom 2.1 times higher than in Jordan, whereas Saudi Arabia's workforce density was 1.5 times higher. Iraq and Syria had lower densities. Over 5 years, 40 medical oncologists and 27 radiation oncologists passed board exams, with oncologists comprising only 1.41% of Jordan's total physicians. Surveyed Jordanian medical students showed low interest in oncology (1.68%). Cancer cases in Jordan are projected to rise by 149.7% by 2050, whereas the workforce is expected to grow by 188.4%, peaking at 25.5 oncologists per 1,000 cancer cases by 2034, before declining due to enrollment limits in medical schools.

Conclusion: Our study reveals significant gaps and challenges in meeting future oncology care demands with low interest among medical students in pursuing oncology specialties. This highlights the need to improve medical student interest in oncological specialties rather than rely on large medical student enrollment and graduation rates.