Initial reduction of the primary tumor or lymph nodes: which is the better prognostic factor in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery?

Abstract

Background: Early response of the primary tumor (PT) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is considered a potential predictor of postoperative prognosis. However, the role of metastatic lymph nodes (LNs) remains poorly understood. This study aimed to compare the predictive value of early response in PT and LNs for postoperative prognosis.

Methods: We enrolled 124 consecutive patients who received NAC-docetaxel, cisplatin, 5-fluorouracil (DCF) followed by surgery for ESCC between April 2010 and March 2020. Initial tumor reduction of the PT (ITR-PT) and LN (ITR-LN), defined as the percentage decrease in tumor shorter diameter after the first course of NAC-DCF, was evaluated using computed tomography. The optimal cut-off values of ITRs were determined using receiver operating characteristic curves and Cox regression models, and their relationship with recurrence-free survival (RFS) was analyzed.

Results: The median ITR-PT and ITR-LN were 21.77% and -0.88%, respectively. The optimal cut-off values for predicting prognosis were approximately 10% for ITR-PT (hazard ratio [HR], 3.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.84-5.64) and -10% for ITR-LN (HR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.27-3.80). ITR-PT showed a greater impact on RFS (3-year RFS: ITR-PT ≥ 10%, 66.1%; ITR-PT < 10%, 18.4%; log-rank P < 0.001) compared with ITR-LN (3-year RFS: ITR-LN ≥ -10%, 64.1%; ITR-PT < -10%, 34.3%; log-rank P = 0.004). Multivariate analysis of RFS identified ypN, ITR-PT, and ITR-LN as independent prognostic factors.

Conclusions: Both ITR-PT and ITR-LN are promising predictors of survival in patients with ESCC who underwent NAC-DCF plus surgery. ITR-PT may be a stronger prognostic factor than ITR-LN.