Transformer-based skeletal muscle deep-learning model for survival prediction in gastric cancer patients after curative resection.

Abstract

Background: We developed and evaluated a skeletal muscle deep-learning (SMDL) model using skeletal muscle computed tomography (CT) imaging to predict the survival of patients with gastric cancer (GC).

Methods: This multicenter retrospective study included patients who underwent curative resection of GC between April 2008 and December 2020. Preoperative CT images at the third lumbar vertebra were used to develop a Transformer-based SMDL model for predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). The predictive performance of the SMDL model was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) and benchmarked against both alternative artificial intelligence models and conventional body composition parameters. The association between the model score and survival was assessed using Cox regression analysis. An integrated model combining SMDL signature with clinical variables was constructed, and its discrimination and fairness were evaluated.

Results: A total of 1242, 311, and 94 patients were assigned to the training, internal, and external validation cohorts, respectively. The Transformer-based SMDL model yielded AUCs of 0.791-0.943 for predicting RFS and DSS across all three cohorts and significantly outperformed other models and body composition parameters. The model score was a strong independent prognostic factor for survival. Incorporating the SMDL signature into the clinical model resulted in better prognostic prediction performance. The false-negative and false-positive rates of the integrated model were similar across sex and age subgroups, indicating robust fairness.

Conclusions: The Transformer-based SMDL model could accurately predict survival of GC and identify patients at high risk of recurrence or death, thereby assisting clinical decision-making.