Assessment of blood metals and dietary health risks in older adults from an Eastern Chinese community based on Monte Carlo simulation.

Abstract

Assessing blood metal levels in older adults is crucial for monitoring nutritional, occupational, and environmental exposures, as environmental metals may potentially affect the health of older people through dietary intake. In this study, we collected blood samples from 2493 older participants in Yiwu, China. 11 metal elements in whole blood were measured using ICP-MS. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to estimate population-level blood metal distributions and use for risk quantification. Dietary metal intake was assessed through food frequency questionnaires. Then it was employed to evaluate health risks from dietary metal exposure. Results of Monte Carlo simulation showed that the medians of Cu, As, Cd, Mn and Cr were 752.69 (682.84, 824.36), 1.94 (1.36, 2.80), 1.40 (0.85, 2.32), 12.78 (10.56, 15.48), 0.44 (0.28, 0.70) µg/L and Fe, and Zn were 332.59 (276.73, 385.13), 4.95 (4.45, 5.48) mg/L. Concentrations of Se, Fe, Zn, As, Cd, Hg, and Pb were significantly higher in men than in women, while Cu and Mn levels were lower in men. Hazard quotients (HQ > 1) for Zn (HQ = 1.108, IQR = 0.857-1.215) indicated unacceptable non-carcinogenic risks, while incremental lifetime cancer risks (ILCR > 1 × 10⁻⁴) for Cr (ILCR = 1.295 × 10⁻³, IQR = 8.725 × 10⁻⁴-1.798 × 10⁻³), As (ILCR = 3.299 × 10⁻⁴, IQR = 2.049 × 10⁻⁴-5.991 × 10⁻⁴), and Cd (ILCR = 3.263 × 10⁻⁴, IQR = 2.747 × 10⁻⁴-3.878 × 10⁻⁴) suggested potential carcinogenic risks. Findings indicated potential health risks from dietary metal exposure in this population. Implementing comprehensive interventions to reduce exposure levels and optimize dietary patterns was essential. Future monitoring should prioritize heavy metal surveillance in food and drinking water.