Global landscape and trends in lifetime risks of haematologic malignancies in 185 countries: population-based estimates from GLOBOCAN 2022.

Abstract

Background: Haematologic malignancies accounted for 6.6% of total cancer cases and 7.2% of total cancer-related deaths worldwide in 2022. We implemented a novel approach to estimate the lifetime risk of developing and dying from various types of haematologic malignancies at the global, regional and country-specific perspectives in 2022.

Methods: We retrieved incidence and mortality rates for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), multiple myeloma (MM) and leukaemia from GLOBOCAN 2022 of 185 countries, along with the national population statistics and all-cause mortality data sourced from the United Nations. For trend analysis, we obtained consecutive cancer registry data spanning from 2003 to 2017 from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) Plus database. After quality control, datasets from 30 countries were included. We used the "adjusted for multiple primaries (AMP)" method to calculate the lifetime risk of incidence (LRI) and mortality (LRM) by cancer type, selected age interval, sex, country and geographic region.

Findings: In 2022, the global lifetime risk of incidence (LRI) and mortality (LRM) for all haematologic malignancies was 1.67% and 0.98%, respectively. LRI was highest for NHL, whereas the LRM was highest for leukaemia. On a general level, males exhibited higher LRI and LRM compared to females. Both LRI and LRM increased with higher Human Development Index (HDI) levels. The LRI and LRM for haematologic malignancies were notably high in regions such as Australia/New Zealand, Northen America, as well as Northen, Western and Southern Europe, whereas they were comparatively low in Middle, Western and Eastern Africa. We observed about 5-fold regional disparity in the LRI/LRM ratio for HL, ranging from 1.50 in Middle Africa to 7.67 in Western Europe. Individuals aged 60 and above still faced 71.26% and 78.57% remaining risks for developing and dying from all haematologic malignancies. Among the 185 countries studied, NHL was the haematologic malignancy with the highest LRI in 68.65% of the countries. However, leukaemia had the highest LRM in 58.92% of these countries. MM exhibited the highest LRI and LRM particularly in islands surrounding the Caribbean Sea. Out of 30 countries with eligible consecutive cancer surveillance data, 24 exhibited significant upward trends in LRI of all haematologic malignancies, with AAPCs ranging from 0.5% in USA to 4.3% in Latvia. 25 countries showed significant upward trends in LRM, with AAPCs ranging from 1.0% in USA to 5.5% in Republic of Korea.

Interpretation: The global lifetime risks of haematologic malignancies exhibit considerable variations across different world regions, necessitating country-specific and targeted decision-making strategies. In contrast to traditional indicators, the compositive lifetime risks provide intuitive measures with profound public health implications, offering fresh insights into the development of regional disease prevention and control strategies.

Funding: CAMS Innovation Funds for Medical Sciences (No. 2021-I2M-1-061, No. 2021-I2M-1-011).