Determination of the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and obstacle factors of coupling coordination of the water-energy-food-ecology system in Ordos City, China.

Abstract

Water, energy, food, and ecology are essential for human survival and development and serve as crucial drivers of regional economic progress. To assess the coordinated and sustainable development of the water-energy-food-ecology (WEFE) system in Ordos city, a tailored evaluation index system reflecting the unique characteristics of this city was established. By applying a coupling coordination degree model, we examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of coordination within the WEFE system from 2012 to 2022. Additionally, we employed the gray relational analysis model and the obstacle degree model to identify key influencing factors and constraints on development. Future trends in coupling coordination were projected via the GM(1,1) gray prediction model. The results indicated that the comprehensive development index of the WEFE system showed an overall upward trend over the study period, with a consistently high level of coupling. The coordination degree exhibited a fluctuating yet increasing trend, transitioning from primary to intermediate coordination stages. Among the subsystems, the energy sector imposed the greatest influence on WEFE system coupling development, whereas industrial water use, total coal consumption, fertilizer application in agriculture and animal husbandry, and wastewater discharge served as the primary constraints. The forecasts for the 2023-2032 period suggested that the coordination degree of the WEFE system in Ordos city will transition from intermediate to high-quality coordination. Building on these findings, we present policy recommendations specific to the characteristics of the WEFE system in the city, providing critical insights for achieving effective resource management and long-term sustainability.