National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2025.

Abstract

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Purpose: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2025 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors.

Methods: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2025 were reviewed-including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, endocrine drugs, generics, specialty drugs and vaccines. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2024 were made based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion.

Results: In 2024, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 10.2% compared to 2023, for a total of $805.9 billion. Utilization (a 7.9% increase) and new drugs (a 2.5% increase) drove this increase, while prices remained flat (a 0.2% decrease). Semaglutide was the top drug in 2024, followed by tirzepatide and adalimumab. Drug expenditures were $39.0 billion (a 4.9% increase) and $158.2 billion (a 14.4% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, increased utilization drove growth, with a small contribution from new products, while prices remained flat. In nonfederal hospitals, new products, price, and new volume each contributed modestly to growth in spend. Several new drugs that will influence spending are expected to be approved in 2025. Specialty, endocrine, and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures.

Conclusion: For 2025, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 9.0 to 11.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate an 11.0% to 13.0% increase and a 2.0% to 4.0% increase, respectively, compared to 2024. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.