Shrinking cities in China's urban network: a data-driven exploration of migration and investment flows

Abstract

Shrinking cities in China have garnered growing academic attention. However, most studies analyze these cities independently, overlooking their roles within broader urban networks. This study utilizes intercity migration and investment flow data to explore the roles of shrinking cities in China's urban network, focusing on flow patterns, network connectivity, and spatial interdependencies. The results show that migration outflows from shrinking cities are concentrated in provincial capitals, whereas investment flows predominantly target national economic centers such as Beijing and Shanghai. Shrinking cities demonstrate higher connectivity in migration networks than in investment networks, often functioning as peripheral nodes with constrained influence. Distinct spatial patterns between migration and investment flows reveal significant regional disparities, highlighting uneven economic interdependencies across China's regions. We propose a comprehensive framework integrating flow pattern analysis, network metrics, and spatial association modeling to assess shrinking cities' roles in regional population and capital redistribution. The findings offer critical insights into the network roles of shrinking cities, supporting the formulation of coordinated development strategies across China's regions.