Business Closures in Uncertain Times: Theory and Evidence

IF 7.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2025.107514

Amit Ghosh, Constant L. Yayi

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This letter theoretically and empirically examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on business closures, using panel data from 26 countries over the period 2006–2022. We find that a one-unit increase in the EPU index significantly raises business closures by approximately 0.7%–0.9% per 1,000 adults. Furthermore, we identify credit supply, household consumption, and stock market capitalization as key channels through which heightened uncertainty leads to firm closures. Our findings highlight the importance of stable credit markets, strong demand, and resilient financial markets in supporting business survival amid rising policy uncertainty.

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不确定时期的企业倒闭：理论与证据

本文利用2006-2022年期间26个国家的面板数据，从理论上和实证上考察了经济政策不确定性（EPU）对企业倒闭的影响。我们发现，EPU指数每增加一个单位，每1,000名成年人的企业倒闭率就会显著提高约0.7%-0.9%。此外，我们认为信贷供应、家庭消费和股票市场资本化是导致企业倒闭的关键渠道。我们的研究结果强调了稳定的信贷市场、强劲的需求和有弹性的金融市场在政策不确定性上升的情况下支持企业生存的重要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

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