Degree of non-grain production of cultivated land and its impact on grain production in China: Analysis of 2481 county-level units

Abstract

Food security is a major issue of global concern, especially for China, which has a population of over 1.4 billion. Aiming at the lack of using China's Third Land Survey data to study the non-grain production of cultivated land (NGPCL) at county level, this paper takes 2481 county-level administrative units as the analysis object, and uses China's Third Land Survey data, cropping system data, and grain sown area data to study NGPCL. The results show that the degree of NGPCL in China is serious. In 2022, the coefficient of NGPCL was 62.11 %, and lost grain sown area (LGSA) exceeded cultivated land area in one third of county-level administrative units. NGPCL also has great impact on grain yield. In 2022, the amount of lost grain (ALG) exceeded half of the grain output, nearly 70 %. In more than 40 % of county-level administrative units, the ALG exceeded the grain output. At the same time, the degree of NGPCL, the ALG and the coefficient of grain loss (CGL) show significant differences in spatial distribution. It indicates that the serious degree of NGPCL does not necessarily mean that the ALG is large. The degree of NGPCL in plain area, hilly and mountainous area has a serious impact on grain yield, but the difference is not significant. Although the degree of NGPCL in the main grain consumption area is large, the ALG is small. Although the degree of NGPCL is relatively small in the main grain production area and the balanced grain production and consumption area, the ALG is large. Based on the above research results, it is pointed out that China's NGPCL is seriously, but it should also be noted that the potential of non-grain production management to increase grain output is huge. The management of NGPCL should not only pay attention to the surface phenomenon of the degree of NGPCL, but the impact of NGPCL on grain output is the key to the management of NGPCL. The control of NGPCL in hilly and mountainous area should also be paid enough attention.