The Economics of External Information and Risky Behavior: A Case Study of Avalanche Forecasting and Backcountry Incidents

Abstract

Understanding risk taking is an important part of the economic analysis of human behavior. When engaging in risky behaviors, individuals rely on heuristics and external information. It is an open question as to whether external information about fluctuating risk reduces bad outcomes for risk takers. We examine this question using data from avalanche incidents in wintertime backcountry recreation. The number of people traveling in avalanche terrain in the United States has grown exponentially in the past more than 2 decades, yet major avalanche accidents have remained relatively constant. Using data from reported avalanche incidents in Colorado and Utah, this paper shows that additional avalanche forecasting services reduce dangerous incidents. A policy change in Colorado allows for a difference-in-differences estimation with neighboring forecast centers, which gives causal estimates of forecasting reducing incidents by 42% on higher danger days. This reduction may be partially offset by an increase in incidents on lowest rated danger days.