The Belt and Road Initiative and Urban Entrepreneurship: Evidence From the Opening Policy From China

Abstract

Entrepreneurship is a vital source of high-quality employment in China and is crucial in advancing Chinese-style modernization. Using panel data from 281 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2021, this study employs difference-in-differences and double machine learning models to examine the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on entrepreneurship. The research findings are as follows: The BRI implementation significantly enhances entrepreneurship at city and provincial levels, with results remaining robust across various tests. The BRI promotes entrepreneurship through industrial innovation, digital trade development, and economic agglomeration. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the BRI's positive effects on entrepreneurship are more pronounced in small and medium-sized cities and central and western regions. Furthermore, the BRI exhibits significant spatial spillover effects, stimulating entrepreneurship in neighboring cities. The initiative also effectively reduces relative disparities in entrepreneurship across regions, particularly between eastern, central, and western areas, thus promoting coordinated regional development. Additionally, triple-difference results indicate that the BRI's positive effects on urban industrial innovation are mainly concentrated in manufacturing sectors such as energy, equipment, and information technology. This study complements the BRI's effects and provides policy implications for narrowing regional entrepreneurship gaps and promoting high-quality full employment in China.