Eliminating conflicts in group decision-making: Exploring potential information cocoon effects across varied levels of psychological resilience

Abstract

In group decision-making (GDM), conflicts often arise, requiring decision-makers (DMs) to adjust their opinions. Variations in DMs’ backgrounds, expertise, and dynamic environmental interactions shape their psychological states, consequently affecting their information-processing strategies and potentially contributing to information cocoon effects. This study aims to develop a conflict-elimination framework that (1) evaluates DMs’ psychological states, (2) identifies the dual nature of information cocoon effects (ICEs) shaping their behaviors, and (3) formulates targeted conflict resolution strategies based on these insights. First, we employ a resilience model to quantify psychological resilience as an indicator of DMs’ psychological states. For highly resilient DMs — less susceptible to ICEs — a tailored conflict elimination strategy using a bi-level optimization model is introduced. For less resilient DMs — more prone to cocoon influences — we examine the conditions under which ICEs can obstruct or facilitate conflict resolution. We then design corresponding optimization models to harness these effects constructively. A numerical demonstration and sensitivity analysis confirm the proposed framework’s effectiveness. Our approach enhances decision-making efficiency and improves conflict resolution outcomes by aligning resolution strategies with DMs’ psychological states and the nature of their ICEs.