Development and validation of a nomogram for prognosis of bone metastatic disease in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A retrospective study in the SEER database and China cohort

IF 3.4 2区医学 Q2 Medicine

Journal of Bone Oncology Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI:10.1016/j.jbo.2025.100683

Bo Huang , Wei-Dong Wang , Fang-Cai Wu , Xiao-Mei Wang , Bu-Qing Shao , Ying-Miao Lin , Guo-Xing Zheng , Gui-Qiang Li , Can-Tong Liu , Yi-Wei Xu , Xin-Jia Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a prevalent malignant tumor worldwide, and individuals with ESCC and bone metastasis (BM) often face a challenging prognosis. Our objective was to identify the risk and prognostic factors associated with BM in patients with ESCC and develop a nomogram for predicting Cancer-Specific Survival (CSS) which following the occurrence of BM.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of data pertaining to ESCC patients with BM registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2015, as well as those treated at a Chinese institution from 2006 to 2020. Significant prognostic factors for CSS were assessed through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Subsequently, a nomogram was developed utilizing the SEER database and externally validated using real-world evidence from a Chinese cohort.

Results

A total of 266 patients from the SEER database and 168 patients from the Chinese cohort were included in the analysis. In the SEER cohort, multivariate analysis indicated that chemotherapy, radiotherapy, liver metastasis, brain metastasis, and sex were independent prognostic factors for ESCC with BM. The prognostic nomogram demonstrated areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) of 0.823, 0.796, and 0.800, respectively, for predicting 3-, 6-, and 12-month CSS. In the Chinese validation cohort, the nomogram exhibited acceptable discrimination (AUCs: 0.822, 0.763, and 0.727) and calibration ability.

Conclusion

The study developed a prognostic nomogram to predict CSS in ESCC patients with BM, which can help clinicians assess survival and make individualized treatment decisions.

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食管鳞状细胞癌患者骨转移疾病预后nomogram的建立和验证：SEER数据库和中国队列的回顾性研究

目的食管鳞状细胞癌（ESCC）是一种世界范围内常见的恶性肿瘤，ESCC合并骨转移（BM）患者的预后往往具有挑战性。我们的目的是确定ESCC患者与脑转移相关的风险和预后因素，并制定预测脑转移发生后癌症特异性生存（CSS）的nomogram。方法：我们对2010年至2015年在监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库中登记的ESCC BM患者以及2006年至2020年在中国一家机构治疗的患者进行了回顾性分析。通过单因素和多因素Cox回归分析评估CSS的重要预后因素。随后，利用SEER数据库开发了一个nomogram，并使用来自中国队列的真实世界证据进行了外部验证。结果来自SEER数据库的266例患者和来自中国队列的168例患者被纳入分析。在SEER队列中，多因素分析显示化疗、放疗、肝转移、脑转移和性别是ESCC合并BM的独立预后因素。预测3个月、6个月和12个月CSS的ROC曲线下面积（auc）分别为0.823、0.796和0.800。在中国验证队列中，nomogram具有可接受的辨别能力（auc分别为0.822、0.763和0.727）和校正能力。结论本研究建立了一种预测ESCC合并BM患者CSS的预后nomogram，可以帮助临床医生评估生存期并制定个性化的治疗决策。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Bone Oncology ONCOLOGY-

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

2.90%

发文量

审稿时长

34 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Bone Oncology is a peer-reviewed international journal aimed at presenting basic, translational and clinical high-quality research related to bone and cancer. As the first journal dedicated to cancer induced bone diseases, JBO welcomes original research articles, review articles, editorials and opinion pieces. Case reports will only be considered in exceptional circumstances and only when accompanied by a comprehensive review of the subject. The areas covered by the journal include: Bone metastases (pathophysiology, epidemiology, diagnostics, clinical features, prevention, treatment) Preclinical models of metastasis Bone microenvironment in cancer (stem cell, bone cell and cancer interactions) Bone targeted therapy (pharmacology, therapeutic targets, drug development, clinical trials, side-effects, outcome research, health economics) Cancer treatment induced bone loss (epidemiology, pathophysiology, prevention and management) Bone imaging (clinical and animal, skeletal interventional radiology) Bone biomarkers (clinical and translational applications) Radiotherapy and radio-isotopes Skeletal complications Bone pain (mechanisms and management) Orthopaedic cancer surgery Primary bone tumours Clinical guidelines Multidisciplinary care Keywords: bisphosphonate, bone, breast cancer, cancer, CTIBL, denosumab, metastasis, myeloma, osteoblast, osteoclast, osteooncology, osteo-oncology, prostate cancer, skeleton, tumour.