Estimation of System-Level Reliability Functions for the Power Grid Using Probabilistic Modeling and Monte Carlo Simulation

IF 3.4 3区计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS

IEEE Access Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI:10.1109/ACCESS.2025.3563427

Ayman Faza

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Abstract

Reliability Modeling for Power Systems is a very challenging task due to the high complexity of the interactions among its various components. In this paper, we develop a simple probabilistic method for modeling power system reliability based on the knowledge of the system size, transmission line capacities, and the failure rate type of the transmission lines in the system. Using Monte Carlo Simulation, we show that the probability distribution of the system failure rate is typically similar in shape to the failure distribution of the transmission lines in the system, with variations stemming from the system size, transmission line capacity, and the type of failure rate. Our method provides a very simple formula for describing system level reliability despite the high complexity of its interconnections, and provides a mechanism to develop similar functions for other complex systems, including different types of networks or critical infrastructures, and can pave the way towards better modeling for the more intelligent future grids.

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基于概率建模和蒙特卡罗仿真的电网系统级可靠性函数估计

由于电力系统各部件之间相互作用的高度复杂性，电力系统可靠性建模是一项非常具有挑战性的任务。在本文中，我们基于系统规模、输电线路容量和系统中输电线路的故障率类型的知识，开发了一种简单的电力系统可靠性建模的概率方法。通过蒙特卡罗模拟，我们发现系统故障率的概率分布在形状上与系统中传输线的故障分布通常相似，其变化源于系统规模、传输线容量和故障率的类型。我们的方法提供了一个非常简单的公式来描述系统级可靠性，尽管其互连的高度复杂性，并提供了一种机制，以开发其他复杂系统的类似功能，包括不同类型的网络或关键基础设施，并可以为更好地建模更智能的未来电网铺平道路。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

IEEE Access COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMSENGIN-ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

CiteScore

9.80

自引率

7.70%

发文量

6673

审稿时长

6 weeks

期刊介绍： IEEE Access® is a multidisciplinary, open access (OA), applications-oriented, all-electronic archival journal that continuously presents the results of original research or development across all of IEEE''s fields of interest. IEEE Access will publish articles that are of high interest to readers, original, technically correct, and clearly presented. Supported by author publication charges (APC), its hallmarks are a rapid peer review and publication process with open access to all readers. Unlike IEEE''s traditional Transactions or Journals, reviews are "binary", in that reviewers will either Accept or Reject an article in the form it is submitted in order to achieve rapid turnaround. Especially encouraged are submissions on: Multidisciplinary topics, or applications-oriented articles and negative results that do not fit within the scope of IEEE''s traditional journals. Practical articles discussing new experiments or measurement techniques, interesting solutions to engineering. Development of new or improved fabrication or manufacturing techniques. Reviews or survey articles of new or evolving fields oriented to assist others in understanding the new area.