Convergence of individual opinions during a bi-virus epidemic and its impact

Abstract

This paper investigates the intricate interplay between individual opinions and bi-virus transmission in a city or country. The proposed model considers two competing viruses, where virus transmission is shaped by individuals’ perceptions of the epidemic, which are, in turn, influenced by the transmission dynamics. Building on the concept of an opinion-dependent reproduction number, we conduct a rigorous theoretical analysis of the proposed model, focusing on equilibrium stability and parameter sensitivity. From the analysis of simulated data, we derive the following insights: (1) Negative opinions during an epidemic, such as believing the epidemic is not severe or distrusting public health measures, may result in inaccurate community responses and potentially reignite outbreaks. (2) In the bi-virus-opinion model, while perceived epidemic severity can reduce infection rates, it does not alter the dominance of the prevailing virus under conditions of high epidemic severity. Furthermore, we examine the role of stubborn opinions to reshape public perception, which can facilitate epidemic eradication under mild epidemic conditions. In the case of dual-virus competition, stubborn opinions can alter the final competitive outcomes. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to validate the findings and corroborate them with real-world data from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.