Prognostication of zooplankton-driven cholera pathoepidemiological Dynamics: Novel Bayesian-regularized deep NARX neuroarchitecture

Abstract

Background

Cholera outbreaks pose significant health concerns, particularly through freshwater contamination through zooplankton serving as reservoirs for Vibrio Cholerae. Understanding these complex interactions within the aquatic ecosystem through mathematical modeling regimes may help us predict and prevent the spread of Cholera disease spread in affected regions.

Method

In this study, an innovative Bayesian regularized deep nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (BRDNARX) neural networks are employed to model the intricate dynamics of Zooplankton-Driven Cholera Disease Transmission (ZDCDT) system. The cholera epidemic propagation through freshwater contamination is uncovered with analysis on densities of phytoplankton, vibrio cholerae carrying zooplankton, human population vector and microbial pathogen vector populous in the marine biosphere. Synthetic data for the ZDCDT is presented for diverse simulations using a modified Adams-Bashforth-Moulton predictor corrector numerical scheme. Subsequently, these temporal data sequences are preprocessed for the novel BRDNARX computing paradigm with an exhaustive assessment on mean square error iterative convergence plots, error histogram charts, regression index reports, input-error crosscorrelation charts, error autocorrelation charts, and time-series response dynamics.

Results and conclusions

Comparative absolute error analysis with reference numerical solution adheres to diminutive disparities of range 10⁻³ to 10⁻⁹. Finally, BRDNARX neurostructures are reconfigured for predictive analysis of ZDCDT system in terms of single and multi-step ahead predictors with mean square error outcomes that range from 10⁻⁹ to 10⁻¹¹. This establishes the efficacy of BRDNARX in correctly adhering to the intricacies of the zooplankton-driven cholera pathoepidemiological dynamics with precise forward prognostication.