On Earthquake Prediction, the Relationship between Seismic and Geodynamic Processes, and the Concept of Information Certainty

Abstract

We are considering in a general form several problems that have to be dealt with in prediction of great earthquakes, which pose the greatest hazard. The most important of these problems include the following: the efficiency of earthquake prediction based on the concept of scenarios, which represent the basic patterns in the evolution of the source zones generating great earthquakes; monitoring the development of such scenarios on the basis of seismological data; modeling the relationship between seismic and geodynamic processes that control the scenarios. We suggest for dealing with the last two problems to use concepts of energy and dynamic spectra of seismic activity in the geomedium, while the solution we propose has a certain peculiarity, namely, introduction of a mathematical concept of information certainty. An example in the use of proposed procedures as set forth in this paper consists in a substantiation of the hypothetical multiyear oscillating movement as the oceanic plate is subducted in the Kamchatka subduction zone at a period of about 8.57 years. It is supposed that such oscillations essentially control the most likely periods in the occurrence of regional great earthquakes.