Sophie Phillips , George Mohler , Frederic Schoenberg
{"title":"Detection of surges of SARS-Cov-2 using nonparametric Hawkes models","authors":"Sophie Phillips , George Mohler , Frederic Schoenberg","doi":"10.1016/j.epidem.2025.100824","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hawkes point process models have been shown to forecast the number of daily new cases of epidemic diseases, including SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19), with high accuracy. Here, we explore how accurately Hawkes models forecast surges of Covid-19 in the United States. We use Hawkes models to estimate the effective reproduction rate <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> and transmission density parameters for Covid-19 case counts in each of the 50 United States, then forecast <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> in future weeks with simple exponential smoothing. A classifier based on <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub><mo>></mo><mi>x</mi></mrow></math></span> is applied to predict upcoming surges in cases each week from August 2020 to December 2021, using only data available up to that week. At false alarm rates below 5%, the forecasts based on <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> are correct more often than forecasts based on smoothing the raw case count data, achieving a maximum accuracy of 90% with <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub><mo>></mo><mn>1</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>39</mn></mrow></math></span>. The optimal decision boundary uses a combination of <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> and observed data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49206,"journal":{"name":"Epidemics","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100824"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Epidemics","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S175543652500012X","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Hawkes point process models have been shown to forecast the number of daily new cases of epidemic diseases, including SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19), with high accuracy. Here, we explore how accurately Hawkes models forecast surges of Covid-19 in the United States. We use Hawkes models to estimate the effective reproduction rate and transmission density parameters for Covid-19 case counts in each of the 50 United States, then forecast in future weeks with simple exponential smoothing. A classifier based on is applied to predict upcoming surges in cases each week from August 2020 to December 2021, using only data available up to that week. At false alarm rates below 5%, the forecasts based on are correct more often than forecasts based on smoothing the raw case count data, achieving a maximum accuracy of 90% with . The optimal decision boundary uses a combination of and observed data.
期刊介绍:
Epidemics publishes papers on infectious disease dynamics in the broadest sense. Its scope covers both within-host dynamics of infectious agents and dynamics at the population level, particularly the interaction between the two. Areas of emphasis include: spread, transmission, persistence, implications and population dynamics of infectious diseases; population and public health as well as policy aspects of control and prevention; dynamics at the individual level; interaction with the environment, ecology and evolution of infectious diseases, as well as population genetics of infectious agents.