Spatial clustering analysis combined with ensemble modeling identified potential coastal conservation hotspots of White-eyed gulls in the Red Sea

Abstract

The islands and coastal habitats of the Red Sea are home to diverse and endemic animal species. However, the current and future conservation status of these species remains unclear. One such species is the White-eyed gull (Ichthyaetus leucophthalmus), an endemic seabird of the Red Sea region that nests on the ground during the hottest months, from June to August. Despite the species' current state of knowledge, there is limited information about its biogeography and spatial distribution in response to ongoing climatic changes in the Red Sea region. In this study, we used a spatial clustering analysis combined with an ensemble modeling approach to predict the coastal distribution and identify potential hotspots for the White-eyed gull. We utilized two sets of current environmental variables and future climatic scenarios for the year 2050 derived from both marine and terrestrial domains. Our analysis identified 13 potential hotspots that are crucial for the conservation of the White-eyed gull. Our findings reveal that climate change is likely to significantly impact the spatial distribution of the White-eyed gull, potentially reducing its current suitable habitats and shifting its range further into the northern Red Sea and possibly to the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, our models, which integrate marine and terrestrial variables, predict the biogeography of the White-eyed gull with 88–95 % accuracy. Our spatial clustering analysis combined with an ensemble modeling approach can inform conservation and management strategies for coastal areas identified as suitable habitats for the White-eyed gull. Furthermore, it has the potential to be applied to other seabird species with similar habitat requirements in the Red Sea region and beyond.