Revealing the Stability Evolution of the Hydropower Megaproject System Based on the Emergy Ecological Network Model

Abstract

The stability of the hydropower megaproject (HM) system is critical for sustainable hydropower development and watershed water resources management. Hence, an accurate assessment of the HM system’s stability is paramount. This study proposed a novel stability analysis model based on the emergy ecological network to reveal the HM system’s stability evolution characteristics and the complex ecological relationships within the HM system. The Three Gorges Project (TGP) is selected as a case study, and its stability evolution from 1994 to 2023 is explored. The results showed that the TGP’s total system throughput flux experienced a fluctuating upward trend during the study period with a mean value of 6.99 × 10²³, which changing trend is consistent with the actual situation of the Yangtze River basin. The system robustness showed a fluctuating rise trend with a mean value of 0.313, which indicates that the TGP system’s stability and anti-interference ability are gradually increasing. This study revealed the nonlinear characteristics of the trade-off relationship between network efficiency and redundancy of the HM system, which provides a novel framework to be used as an evaluation index and policy insights for sustainable hydropower development.