Artificial intelligence-inspired comprehensive framework for desertification prediction

Abstract

Desertification greatly affects land deterioration, farming efficiency, economic growth, and health, especially in Gulf nations. Climate change has worsened desertification, making developmental issues in the area even more difficult. This research presents an enhanced framework utilizing the Internet of Things (IoT) for ongoing monitoring, data gathering, and analysis to evaluate desertification patterns. The framework utilizes Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to categorize IoT data, while a low-latency processing method on edge computing platforms enables effective detection of desertification trends. The classified data is subsequently analyzed using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) optimized with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) for forecasting decisions. Using cloud computing infrastructure, the ANN-GA model examines intricate data connections to forecast desertification risk elements. Moreover, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is employed to predict desertification over varied time intervals.

Experimental simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the suggested framework, attaining enhanced performance in essential metrics: Temporal Delay (103.68 s), Classification Efficacy—Sensitivity (96.44 %), Precision (95.56 %), Specificity (96.97 %), and F-Measure (96.69 %)—Predictive Efficiency—Accuracy (97.76 %) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (1.95 %)—along with Reliability (93.73 %) and Stability (75 %). The results of classification effectiveness and prediction performance emphasize the framework's ability to detect high-risk zones and predict the severity of desertification.

This innovative method improves the comprehension of desertification processes and encourages sustainable land management practices, reducing the socio-economic impacts of desertification and bolstering at-risk ecosystems. The results of the study hold considerable importance for enhancing regional efforts in combating desertification, ensuring food security, and formulating environmental sustainability policies.