Impacts of the CSIRO climate modelling program

Abstract

The role of climate modelling groups in the development of international agreements that aim to assess future climatic risks and limit greenhouse gas concentrations is not well recognised. It is arguable that no such agreements would have been possible without carefully designed and managed research programs that provided the data upon which these risks and thus, decisions were made. Many groups contributed data that underpinned the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report published in 2014 that led to the ground-breaking Paris Agreement. Australia’s contribution included the results of a CSIRO climate model which had its genesis in a relatively simple weather forecast model two decades previously. Two people were mainly responsible for the modelling program which led to this accomplishment—Barrie Hunt and Hal Gordon. A brief history of the program is described here and. Examining some basic metrics reveals some surprising impacts.