Exploring FTAs, seafood exports, and SDGs: a gravity model analysis of Pakistan’s seafood trade with China and regional partners

IF 2.8 2区生物学 Q1 MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY

Frontiers in Marine Science Pub Date : 2025-04-10 DOI:10.3389/fmars.2025.1553780

Yuxiang Xia, Hengbin Yin, Muhammad Mohsin, Ana Mehak, Cai Yan

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Abstract

This study examines the effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on Pakistan’s seafood exports, specifically analyzing the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement (CP-FTA) and its stages, CP-FTAI and CP-FTAII. Using the gravity model (GM) of trade, it empirically analyzes the dynamics of seafood trade between Pakistan and its neighboring countries, aiming to provide insights into improving trade balance and export performance. The study employs three econometric approaches—Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Fixed Effects Model (FEM), and Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) to ensure the robustness and reliability of the findings. The results reveal that Pakistan’s seafood exports are significantly influenced by FTAs, particularly with Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia, while CPFTA-I shows a positive impact. However, CPFTA-II exhibit negative and insignificant relationship, indicating that external shocks, like the COVID-19 pandemic, have impacted trade dynamics. The results of this study are significantly relevant to multiple United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Notably, they contribute to SDG 8, which focuses on Decent Work and Economic Growth, by promoting trade-driven economic advancement. Furthermore, they support SDG 9, which pertains to Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure, by facilitating infrastructure development through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Additionally, they align with SDG 12, which emphasizes Responsible Consumption and Production by advocating sustainable trade practices. The study recommends enhancing FTAs, improving infrastructure, and expanding trade with neighboring markets to optimize Pakistan’s seafood export potential. Policymakers should focus on strengthening trade agreements, streamlining logistics, and integrating variables like security and exchange rates to develop more resilient and sustainable trade strategies, contributing to important SDGs.

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探索自由贸易协定、海产品出口和可持续发展目标：巴基斯坦与中国及地区合作伙伴海产品贸易的重力模型分析

本研究探讨了自由贸易协定（FTAs）对巴基斯坦海产品出口的影响，特别分析了中国-巴基斯坦自由贸易协定（CP-FTA）及其阶段性协定 CP-FTAI 和 CP-FTAII。本研究使用贸易引力模型（GM）对巴基斯坦与其邻国之间的海产品贸易动态进行了实证分析，旨在为改善贸易平衡和出口绩效提供见解。研究采用了三种计量经济学方法--二进制最小二乘法（OLS）、固定效应模型（FEM）和伪泊松最大似然法（PPML），以确保研究结果的稳健性和可靠性。结果显示，巴基斯坦的海产品出口受到自贸协定的显著影响，尤其是与阿富汗、斯里兰卡和马来西亚的自贸协定，而 CPFTA-I 显示出积极影响。然而，CPFTA-II 显示出负相关且不显著，表明外部冲击（如 COVID-19 大流行病）影响了贸易动态。本研究的结果与多个联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）密切相关。值得注意的是，它们通过促进贸易驱动的经济发展，为以体面工作和经济增长为重点的可持续发展目标 8 做出了贡献。此外，它们还通过中巴经济走廊（CPEC）促进基础设施发展，从而支持有关工业、创新和基础设施的可持续发展目标 9。此外，它们还与可持续发展目标 12 保持一致，该目标通过倡导可持续贸易实践，强调负责任的消费和生产。研究建议加强自由贸易协定，改善基础设施，扩大与周边市场的贸易，以优化巴基斯坦的海产品出口潜力。政策制定者应重点加强贸易协定、简化物流、整合安全和汇率等变量，以制定更具弹性和可持续性的贸易战略，为重要的可持续发展目标做出贡献。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Frontiers in Marine Science Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Aquatic Science

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

16.20%

发文量

2443

审稿时长

14 weeks

期刊介绍： Frontiers in Marine Science publishes rigorously peer-reviewed research that advances our understanding of all aspects of the environment, biology, ecosystem functioning and human interactions with the oceans. Field Chief Editor Carlos M. Duarte at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal is supported by an outstanding Editorial Board of international researchers. This multidisciplinary open-access journal is at the forefront of disseminating and communicating scientific knowledge and impactful discoveries to researchers, academics, policy makers and the public worldwide. With the human population predicted to reach 9 billion people by 2050, it is clear that traditional land resources will not suffice to meet the demand for food or energy, required to support high-quality livelihoods. As a result, the oceans are emerging as a source of untapped assets, with new innovative industries, such as aquaculture, marine biotechnology, marine energy and deep-sea mining growing rapidly under a new era characterized by rapid growth of a blue, ocean-based economy. The sustainability of the blue economy is closely dependent on our knowledge about how to mitigate the impacts of the multiple pressures on the ocean ecosystem associated with the increased scale and diversification of industry operations in the ocean and global human pressures on the environment. Therefore, Frontiers in Marine Science particularly welcomes the communication of research outcomes addressing ocean-based solutions for the emerging challenges, including improved forecasting and observational capacities, understanding biodiversity and ecosystem problems, locally and globally, effective management strategies to maintain ocean health, and an improved capacity to sustainably derive resources from the oceans.