Tracking of factors affecting Chinese women's fertility intentions from childhood to adulthood: Under birth-control policy shift.

Abstract

China experienced a rapid fertility decline in recent decades. Fertility intention as a strong predictor of actual behavior has attracted much attention. Yet, there is not much literature to analyze Chinese women's fertility intention from a life-course framework. This study attempts to shed light on the relationship between the formation of women's fertility concepts and their growth trajectory and highlights the policy effect on fertility intentions during the policy-shift process. Using data from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (CLDS) collected in 2014, 2016 and 2018, I tracked those factors affecting Chinese childbearing-age women's fertility intentions. The changes in women's intentions for a second child and for the ideal number of children were estimated by logistic regressions respectively, and propensity score matching (PSM) was used to test the robustness of results. Adult women's fertility intentions were associated with their childhood family background, and the sibsize effect on their fertility intentions was found to be significantly positive. Compared with socio-economic characteristics, the influence of their self-rated health (SRH) and subjective well-being (SWB) on fertility intention was more prominent. The policy effect on the changes in women's fertility intentions was confirmed. The intergenerational preference from parents to their daughters, or/and the intimate relationship among siblings may contribute to women's intentions for more children.