Cropping frequency and crop acreage in response to temperature change: Evidence from China

Abstract

This paper employs a 25-year panel of Chinese counties to examine the nonlinear impacts of rising temperatures on cropping frequency and acreages. We find that growing degree days have no significant effects, while extreme heat, measured by harmful degree days, reduces cropping frequency mainly through a reduction in total planted area. Improved irrigation conditions, higher levels of mechanization, and adequate precipitation can mitigate these adverse impacts. Simulations based on uniform warming scenarios ranging from 0.5°C to 2.0°C predict that future warming will reduce cropping frequency by 0.02–0.10, driven by a decline in planted area (1.0%–6.3%).