A meta-analytic structural equation analysis of the Gateway Belief Model: highlighting scientific consensus increases support for public action on climate change

Abstract

The Gateway Belief Model (GBM) posits that correcting influential misperceptions about the scientific consensus on climate change acts as a ‘gateway’ to subsequent smaller changes in private cognitions and emotions that people hold about the issue, which, in turn, jointly predict support for public action. To date, there has been no meta-analytical assessment of the full GBM as theorized. Accordingly, we systematically reviewed the literature and leveraged advances in meta-analytic structural equation modeling (MASEM) to estimate the downstream impact of consensus messaging on public support for climate action. Based on nine studies that met the inclusion criteria (N = 12 975), we find that the GBM fits the data well and that communicating the scientific consensus has significant meta-analytic downstream effects, including increases in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused, how much people worry about the issue, and, crucially, support for public action. We discuss implications for future research.