Modelling the future of aquatic products’ trade under marine pollution by Japan’s nuclear wastewater

IF 2.8 2区生物学 Q1 MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY

Frontiers in Marine Science Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI:10.3389/fmars.2025.1534786

Liru Chen, Yihang Zhang, Yanwen Tan, Abdelrahman Ali

{"title":"Modelling the future of aquatic products’ trade under marine pollution by Japan’s nuclear wastewater","authors":"Liru Chen, Yihang Zhang, Yanwen Tan, Abdelrahman Ali","doi":"10.3389/fmars.2025.1534786","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"IntroductionThe discharge of nuclear wastewater (NW) poses significant environmental, economic, and geopolitical risks, impacting marine ecosystems, global fisheries trade, and public health. Japan's decision to release NW has triggered international responses, including seafood import restrictions and inspections.MethodsThis study simulates the short-term (ST) and long-term (LT) effects of NW on global fisheries trade under various scenarios using complex network analysis and maximum entropy modeling.ResultsSimulation outcomes suggest that in the ST scenario, China’s aquatic exports may decrease by 9.11 million tons, followed by Japan with 2.09 million tons. Import reductions for China, the U.S., and Japan could reach $1403M, $1310M, and $1046M, respectively. In the LT scenario, Japan’s exports may fall by $1791M, with China and Chile losing $1321M and $1306M. The U.S. may cut imports by $2521.9M (7.98%), China by 10.06%, and Japan by 7.20%. Smaller-importer nations are also notably impacted.DiscussionThese projections highlight NW’s wide-ranging trade effects, though real-world outcomes will depend on evolving factors. Ongoing monitoring and adaptive trade policies are crucial to mitigate impacts on seafood trade, food security, and economic stability. The results offer strategic guidance for policymakers and industry stakeholders.","PeriodicalId":12479,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Marine Science","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Frontiers in Marine Science","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2025.1534786","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

IntroductionThe discharge of nuclear wastewater (NW) poses significant environmental, economic, and geopolitical risks, impacting marine ecosystems, global fisheries trade, and public health. Japan's decision to release NW has triggered international responses, including seafood import restrictions and inspections.MethodsThis study simulates the short-term (ST) and long-term (LT) effects of NW on global fisheries trade under various scenarios using complex network analysis and maximum entropy modeling.ResultsSimulation outcomes suggest that in the ST scenario, China’s aquatic exports may decrease by 9.11 million tons, followed by Japan with 2.09 million tons. Import reductions for China, the U.S., and Japan could reach $1403M, $1310M, and $1046M, respectively. In the LT scenario, Japan’s exports may fall by $1791M, with China and Chile losing $1321M and $1306M. The U.S. may cut imports by $2521.9M (7.98%), China by 10.06%, and Japan by 7.20%. Smaller-importer nations are also notably impacted.DiscussionThese projections highlight NW’s wide-ranging trade effects, though real-world outcomes will depend on evolving factors. Ongoing monitoring and adaptive trade policies are crucial to mitigate impacts on seafood trade, food security, and economic stability. The results offer strategic guidance for policymakers and industry stakeholders.

查看原文本刊更多论文

在日本核废水污染的海洋环境下，模拟水产品贸易的未来

核废水（NW）的排放带来了重大的环境、经济和地缘政治风险，影响海洋生态系统、全球渔业贸易和公共卫生。日本释放西北海域的决定引发了国际社会的反应，包括海鲜进口限制和检查。方法采用复杂网络分析和最大熵模型，模拟了NW对全球渔业贸易的短期（ST）和长期（LT）影响。结果模拟结果表明，在ST情景下，中国水产品出口可能减少911万吨，其次是日本，减少209万吨。中国、美国和日本的进口减少可能分别达到1.04亿美元、1.31亿美元和1.046亿美元。在这种情况下，日本的出口可能会减少1.791亿美元，中国和智利的出口将分别减少1.321亿美元和1.06亿美元。美国将削减2.5219亿美元（7.98%），中国将削减10.06%，日本将削减7.20%。较小的进口国也受到了明显的影响。这些预测凸显了西北地区广泛的贸易影响，尽管实际结果将取决于不断变化的因素。持续监测和适应性贸易政策对于减轻对海产品贸易、粮食安全和经济稳定的影响至关重要。研究结果为政策制定者和行业利益相关者提供了战略指导。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Frontiers in Marine Science Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Aquatic Science

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

16.20%

发文量

2443

审稿时长

14 weeks

期刊介绍： Frontiers in Marine Science publishes rigorously peer-reviewed research that advances our understanding of all aspects of the environment, biology, ecosystem functioning and human interactions with the oceans. Field Chief Editor Carlos M. Duarte at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal is supported by an outstanding Editorial Board of international researchers. This multidisciplinary open-access journal is at the forefront of disseminating and communicating scientific knowledge and impactful discoveries to researchers, academics, policy makers and the public worldwide. With the human population predicted to reach 9 billion people by 2050, it is clear that traditional land resources will not suffice to meet the demand for food or energy, required to support high-quality livelihoods. As a result, the oceans are emerging as a source of untapped assets, with new innovative industries, such as aquaculture, marine biotechnology, marine energy and deep-sea mining growing rapidly under a new era characterized by rapid growth of a blue, ocean-based economy. The sustainability of the blue economy is closely dependent on our knowledge about how to mitigate the impacts of the multiple pressures on the ocean ecosystem associated with the increased scale and diversification of industry operations in the ocean and global human pressures on the environment. Therefore, Frontiers in Marine Science particularly welcomes the communication of research outcomes addressing ocean-based solutions for the emerging challenges, including improved forecasting and observational capacities, understanding biodiversity and ecosystem problems, locally and globally, effective management strategies to maintain ocean health, and an improved capacity to sustainably derive resources from the oceans.